The (fantasy) silver lining of Savard’s loss

Bruins C Patrice Bergeron has been one of the top centers in fantasy since his teammate Marc Savard (concussion) got hurt March 7.

The Bruins are 1-2-1 in the four games since C Marc Savard (concussion) went down March 7.

Obviously, the Spoked B’s aren’t as potent without their top playmaker.

Still, we couldn’t help but notice that three Bruins forwards have found fantasy relevance in Savard’s absence.

C Patrice Bergeron (27.2 percent owned in ESPN, 26 percent in Yahoo!). In his last four games: three goals, three assists, +5. He ranks No. 29 in ESPN and No. 25 in Yahoo! among all players in the last seven days. Interestingly, Bergeron’s minutes have not increased in the four games sans Savard. But his scoring has. Still, you should be wary of one thing: Bergeron’s hot streak does not include a single power play point.

RW Blake Wheeler (84 percent owned in ESPN, 34 percent in Yahoo!). In his last four games: three goals, two assists, +4, good for a No. 44 rank in ESPN and No. 41 in Yahoo! over the last seven days. Whereas Bergeron’s minutes have not changed in Savard’s absence, Wheeler’s have spiked: He has logged more than 19:00 in each of his last two games. Up till now, he’s been lucky to crack 17:00 in a given contest. However, Wheeler does share one trait with Bergeron: no productivity on the power play in Savard’s absence.

LW Marco Sturm (82.9 percent owned in ESPN, 15 percent in Yahoo!). In his last four games: two goals, two assists, +4, and yes, a power play goal. He ranks No. 12 in Yahoo! and No. 19 in ESPN over the last seven days. However, like Bergeron, he has not seen an increase in ice time in Savard’s absence.

Like most teams, the Bruins face a packed upcoming schedule, a cramming designed to offset the regular season’s two-week Olympic hiatus. Specifically, the Bruins visit Carolina Tuesday night, host the Penguins Thursday night, and then host the Rangers Sunday afternoon.

So, which of these three Bruins — a center, a left wing, and a right wing — should you pick up for the stretch run? None, if your biggest need is power play points. But if your biggest need is simply points in general — i.e. goals and assists — then let positional scarcity be your guide.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Friday night fantasy feast: Tampa Bay at Washington

Don't overlook the fantasy potency of Lightning C Steven Stamkos and his teammates at Washington on Friday night.

The Capitals need no introduction to the fantasy hockey world. They average 3.82 goals per game, tops in the NHL.

On Friday they host the Lightning, who yield 2.93 goals per game (ranking 22nd). The Lightning also rank second in the NHL in penalty minutes, with 1,099 on the season. More on that later.

The last time these two teams faced off in Washington on March 4, the Caps prevailed 5-4.

Right wings Mike Knuble and Scott Walker each scored twice for the Caps, and RW Eric Fehr registered the other Washington goal.

It would seem like an obvious time to snag any Caps right wings from your free agent pool. While that is true, we’re here to tell you: Don’t overlook the Lightning side of the fantasy equation.

Yes, they have lost three of their last four contests. But Tampa Bay has also scored a whopping 13 goals in those four games (including the 5-4 loss at Washington).

In the March 4 game, Lightning RW Steve Downie scored once, C Vincent Lecavalier scored twice and C Steven Stamkos also scored.

Among this trio, perhaps only Downie is available in your league. That brings us back to the penalty minutes. The Lightning find the penalty box against everybody, and Downie (186 PIM) is a big reason why.

Against Washington on March 4, Downie did not log a single penalty minute. But four of his teammates did: Stamkos, RW Mark Parrish, D Kurtis Foster and D Victor Hedman all logged two-minute minors.

On the Washington side, D-men Mike Green, Tom Poti and Jeff Schultz all sat for two-minute minors, as did Knuble, C Nicklas Backstrom and LW Brooks Laich.

All told: This game featured nine goals and 10 penalties (on 10 different players).

In other words, it was a fantasy feast. And the record shows, it wasn’t just the big-name hockey stars dining at the table.

So grab as many Caps and Lightning as you can for Friday night’s match-up.  Then sit tight and watch the numbers roll in.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Two Canadiens to watch Tuesday night (Pouliot, Kostitsyn)

Canadiens LW Andrei Kostitsyn (knee) is slated to return to the lineup for Tuesday night's tilt at Boston. Get him in your fantasy lineup, too.

A tip of the fantasy cap to ESPN.com’s Sean Allen, whose latest Forecaster column contains a note about two Montreal Canadiens who’ve been favorites of the Genius all season: LW Andre Kostitsyn (knee) and RW Benoit Pouliot (shoulder).

Both players are scheduled to return to the lineup for Tuesday night’s 7:00 pm game at the Boston Bruins.

Both players were on fire before injuries derailed their prolific campaigns. True, their scoring touch might not return in their first few games back, as Allen points out. But as faithful readers of the Genius know, we never hesitate to dump our No. 4 defenseman for a speculative add at forward.

In case you’ve forgotten your NHL box scores during the Olympic fortnight, let us remind you:

Pouliot (3.3 percent owned in ESPN, 13 percent in Yahoo!) had tallied five goals and two assists in the eight games prior to his Feb. 5 injury.

Kostitsyn (64.3 percent owned in ESPN, 15 percent in Yahoo!) had logged eight goals and three assists in the 11 games prior to his Jan. 3 injury.

Forced to pick one of the two returning Habs, I’d go with AK-46 (above), who has the pedigree (10th overall pick in 2003) and simply looks like the more lethal scorer to the naked eye.

The only thing in Pouliot’s favor is his positional scarcity as a RW. Still, both Habs are worth keeping tabs on. And both are likely available in your league, especially if your fellow owners have gone to sleep during the Olympics.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Holy Schenn

Blue Jackets G Steve Mason wasn't the only second-year star who shined on Saturday.

Saturday was a superb day for fans of the NHL box score.

There were four shutouts. Marty Turco, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Steve Mason and Craig Anderson, take a bow.

There were nine two-goal scorers. Michal Handzus, Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Gionta, Jamie Benn, Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn, J.P. Dumont, Dany Heatley and Radek Dvorak, take a bow.

Of all these players, the one who most caught my eye is Schenn. A second-year defenseman, the fifth overall pick in 2008, Schenn has played more than 21:00 in every game (all three of them) since Ian White left town in the Dion Phaneuf deal.

In addition to his two goals in Giguere’s 5-0 home shutout of the Senators on Saturday, Schenn notched an assist, two penalty minutes, four shots on goal, and a team-high +4.

Should you drop everything and pick him up? Unless there’s a player you’re dying to drop, not yet. After all, Saturday was the first time Schenn had cracked the scoring sheet since Jan. 18.

But as of yesterday’s performance, Schenn belongs on all watch lists. Especially if you missed out on the Mark Giordano sweepstakes.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

With Cammalleri out, who scores?

With Habs LW Michael Cammalleri (pictured here in the garb of his former team) out for six weeks, who will score for the Canadiens?

Habs LW Michael Cammalleri (right MCL) is out for at least six weeks.

The Canadiens have now played twice in his absence, winning 3-2 vs. Vancouver on Tuesday and 3-2 (shootout) at Boston on Thursday.

The injury leaves C Tomas Plekanec without his formerly formidable pair of wings — Cammalleri (26 goals, 22 assists, +10, 15 PPP, 191 shots in 56 games) and RW Andrei Kostitsyn (lower body), who has been out of action since New Year’s Eve with no timetable for returning.

Plekanec is now skating between LW Sergei Kostitsyn and RW Benoit Pouliot. It was this line that picked up the scoring slack in the 3-2 win vs. Vancouver. Kostitsyn staked the Habs to a 1-0 lead on a pass from Pouliot. Plekanec scored the eventual game winner in the third period, assisted by Pouliot and Kostitsyn.

The other Montreal goal came from the third line in the first period, with C Maxim Lapierre capitalizing on a feed from RW Mathieu Darche. All three Habs goals came at even strength.

On its surface, the box score of this game was yet another signal for fantasy owners to grab Pouliot. Still only owned in 19 percent of Yahoo! and 11.7 percent of ESPN leagues, Pouliot was on fire long before the Cammalleri injury. He has tallied 10 goals and three assists in his last 16 games.

As for Kostitsyn, it was a good game, but it seemed like a fluke since he’d gone scoreless in his previous seven contests. Plekanec was not really part of the fantasy conversation, since he is an assists machine who was already a nearly universally owned player (74 percent Yahoo!, 84.7 ESPN).

Then came Thursday’s 3-2 shootout win in Boston. Down 2-0 in the second, the Habs halved the lead on a power play goal from ex-Bruin Glen Metropolit. C Scott Gomez and D Andre Markov recorded the assists. Less than one minute later, the Habs tied it when D Roman Hamrlik scored, assisted by Gomez and Kostitsyn.

In fantasy terms, this game hardly clarified anything. Markov was already a universally owned defenseman. Hamrlik and Gomez have been borderline roster-worthy for several seasons. Metropolit is a classic “good in real life, not so much in fantasy” grinder. But then there was that point from Kostitsyn, making us wonder: Is this 22-year-old with the gifted brother worthy of our attention, now that he’s skating with Plekanec?

Our answer: Yes, but the better fantasy play is Pouliot, who is still out there in the vast majority of free agent pools.

The Canadiens next play Saturday afternoon (2pm) at Pittsburgh, and we’ll be watching to determine if the Kostitsyn-Plekanic-Pouliot line continues to produce.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

With Horton out, who scores?

Panthers RW Nathan Horton is out for five more weeks. Who will pick up the scoring slack?

Panthers RW Nathan Horton (fractured left tibia) is expected to miss five more weeks. Florida has now played twice in his absence.

Interestingly, the Panthers have won both games. Still, there are signs of a scoring slump.

For the season, Florida averages 2.61 goals per game, placing them in the middle of the NHL pack (16th). However, in each of these wins — 2-0 vs. Toronto Jan. 23 and 2-1 vs. Montreal Jan. 26 — the Panthers scored only twice.

Throughout the season, the line of Horton (17 goals, 29 assists), C Stephen Weiss (19 goals, 25 assists) and LW Michael Frolik (13 goals, 17 assists) has carried the Panthers attack. (Though Frolik is listed as a C/RW in both ESPN and Yahoo! fantasy formats, the box-score reality is that he has skated and scored all year with Horton and Weiss.)

In the 2-0 win vs. Toronto, both Frolik and Weiss tallied assists. On Florida’s first goal, Weiss and D Dennis Seidenberg helped LW Cory Stillman on a power play. On Florida’s second goal, Frolik and C Gregory Campbell set up LW Kenndal McArdle.

So, after one game sans Horton, the short list of Wally Pipp candidates was Seidenberg, Stillman, Campbell and McArdle. Alas, none of this mighty quartet cracked the score sheet in Florida’s 2-1 win vs. Montreal. It was C Shawn Matthias who scored both Panthers goals, the first of which came on a third-period penalty shot (and thus was unassisted). On his second goal, the assists went to RW Michael Repik and C/LW Dominic Moore.

In other words, it was a march of fantasy no-names.

And so, after two games sans Horton, here’s what we know:

1. While nine different Panthers registered a point, not a single Panther scored in both of the games.

2. The Panthers visit Washington Friday night, so there’s no reason any of them should be in your lineup anyway. You can safely return Frolik, Weiss and G Tomas Vokoun to your lineup Sunday, when Florida hosts the Islanders.

3. If there’s a fantasy commodity on the Panthers to monitor, it’s LW Rostislav Olesz. Dobber called him out on Yahoo! last week, writing:

“His bigger-than-deserved contract alone is reason enough to keep an eye on him. If the team thinks so highly of Olesz, then it goes without saying that he’ll get his chances. He has six points, six PIM and is a plus-4 in his last six contests, making him one of the better wingers to own in the past two weeks. He has the talent to keep up a similar pace, albeit slightly slower.”

Granted: Olesz (13 goals, 13 assists) is no star and he has not scored in his last four contests. But he has continued to put shots on net — 130 this season and at least two in each of those last four games. And he gets ice time: at least 15:00 per match. He has pedigree — seventh overall pick in 2004 — and he is only 24 years old.

More pertinent to fantasy players, he is only 0.6 percent owned in ESPN and three percent owned in Yahoo! formats. No need to pick him up yet, but keep an eye on him to post numbers while Horton’s gone.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

The best trade in fantasy hockey history

With Canadiens LW Andrei Kostitsyn, above, out until Mar. 2, teammate Benoit Pouliot (owned in fewer than 7 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues) has picked up the slack.

Sure, the game of the night is Washington’s visit to Pittsburgh. A clash of Eastern Conference heavyweights and all that.

But in fantasy land, the teams we’re watching are Montreal (tied for ninth in the conference as of Thursday) and Minnesota (tied for 12th in the Western Conference).

On Jan. 23, we’ll have reached the two-month anniversary of a landmark trade between these teams.

Incredibly, the two players swapped for each other — Minnesota RW/LW Guillaume Latendresse (14 percent owned in ESPN, 31 percent in Yahoo!) and Montreal LW Benoit Pouliot (1.1 percent ESPN, 6 percent Yahoo!) — remain radically underowned.

Why this is, I cannot fathom.

In his 25 games with the Wild, Latendresse, 22, has totaled 13 goals and six assists with a +6, not to mention 63 shots on goal. He next plays tonight vs. Detroit.

In his 13 games with the Canadiens, Pouliot, 23, has totaled eight goals and one assist with a +2, not to mention 15 penalty minutes and 37 shots on goal. He next plays Friday night at New Jersey. And he has more than picked up the scoring slack for wounded teammate LW Andrei Kostitsyn (knee).

Which of the two youngsters is more valuable? It depends on your needs. Pouliot, the fourth overall pick in 2005, stands 6-foot-4 and brings penalty minutes to the table. Latendresse, a second-round pick in 2005, is not a banger, but he is eligible at RW.

Bottom line: both players should be more highly owned, especially when you consider their last eight games. For Latendresse, the totals are seven goals and five assists. For Pouliot, the totals are six goals and one assist — and those 15 PIMs.

Here at The Genius, we ask this question all the time but we must ask again: Would you rather retain your No. 4 defenseman, or take a stab at greatness?

Grab Latendresse and/or Pouliot now, before the rest of your league awakens.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

The Winter Classic’s top fantasy question: Is Leighton legit?

Flyers goalie Michael Leighton -- depicted here in Ducks gear -- has won four road games in a row. Is he a fantasy fluke?

The hype surrounding the 2010 Winter Classic makes it easy to overlook the game’s most vexing fantasy question: Is Flyers goalie Michael Leighton — winner of his last four and Philly’s starting pipe-man on New Year’s Day — a legit, long-term fantasy commodity?

First things first: Leighton has already proven himself as a short-term commodity. So grab him in your leagues while you still can.

As I type on New Year’s Eve, Leighton is owned in only 2.2 percent of ESPN leagues and 8 percent of Yahoo! formats. That is bound to change if he performs decently on national TV in a game that may garner higher ratings than the Stanley Cup Finals.

Look at it this way: If Leighton shits the bed Jan. 1, you can always drop him Jan. 2. If he plays well, you may miss your chance to add him.

So: Is Leighton legit for the long term? Here’s the case for Leighton, followed by the case against him.

Leighton is legit because:

• He has won four straight on the road, including a 6-0 shutout Dec. 30 at the Rangers.
• His save percentage in all four wins: 1.000 at the Rangers; .966 at the Islanders on Dec. 27; .925 at Carolina on Dec. 26; and .939 at Tampa on Dec. 23. Numbers like that win fantasy titles. Stats like that are why Leighton is ESPN.com’s highest rated goalie over the last seven days.
• He allowed three or fewer goals in all four games. In addition to shutting out the Rangers, he allowed one goal at the Isles, three at Carolina and two at Tampa.
• The Flyers’ starting goalie, whoever it is, can help any fantasy squad in the wins category. This is especially true with the return to health of LW Simon Gagne, whose hat trick was a terrific sign for Philly’s offense. The Flyers have so much firepower that their netminders are always in play for victories.

Leighton is not legit because:

• His recent competition has been weak. Carolina (15th), the Islanders (13th), the Lightning (11th) and the Rangers (10th) are not in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The Bruins (5th) are Leighton’s first true test.
• His recent competition also stinks at offense. Carolina (2.42 goals per game, 28th), the Islanders (2.32, 30th) and the Lightning (2.42, tied with Carolina for 28th) are, in fact, the three worst scoring teams in the NHL. The Rangers (2.61, 20th) are not much better. Of course, here we should note that the Bruins (2.46, 25th) have hardly set the world aflame. (In fact, Boston has scored two or fewer goals in four of its last six. Both games in which the Bruins scored more than two goals were against the Thrashers.)
• His previous flashes of brilliance have amounted to nothing. Last season with Carolina, Leighton stonewalled the Capitals 3-1 on Dec. 7 (save percentage: .974). The previous day, Leighton lost 2-1 in overtime vs. the Flyers (save percentage: .935). It was the last time all season Leighton would yield fewer than three goals in a start. For what it’s worth, Leighton also played well at the end of 2003-04 with the Blackhawks. In his final two starts, he posted save percentages of .951 (stopping 39 of 41) and .953 (41 of 43), earning 2-2 ties vs. Phoenix and at Colorado.

Still, make no mistake: The proper fantasy move is to roster Leighton as soon as you can. Great goalies win fantasy titles, and savvy owners will take risks to pluck them from the waiver wire.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Time to drop Rich Peverley?

Thrashers C Rich Peverley, a fantasy mainstay this season, has gone ice cold.

Thrashers C Rich Peverley has not scored for four straight games.

Despite this dry spell, Peverley (89.8 percent owned in ESPN, 63 percent in Yahoo!) ranks No. 27 among all centers in Yahoo! and 39th among all forwards in ESPN. With 12 goals and 21 assists, he is on nearly a point-per-game pace.

Still, I dropped Peverley in one of my leagues today because I needed a body to replace Senators RW Daniel Alfredsson (separated left shoulder), who is expected to be out until early February.

Why did I cut Peverley? The primary reason is his position. Every fantasy hockey season offers unlimited depth at center. Look no further for evidence than Canadiens C Tomas Plekanec (68.6 percent owned in ESPN, 66 percent in Yahoo!). Though Plekanec is a higher rated player than Peverley in both ESPN (37th among all forwards) and Yahoo! (eighth among centers), he is more widely available.

You can always find a solid No. 2 center on the waiver wire in fantasy hockey. Every now and then you can also find a terrific one like Plekanec, who is second in the NHL in assists. That’s why I never fret about dropping my No. 2 center to fill an injury void. I can always find another. By contrast, a red-hot winger like Red Wings LW/RW Todd Bertuzzi — eight goals and 22 penalty minutes in his last eight games — might not last in the free agent pool very long.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Everybody loves Raymond (and ditches Samuelsson)

Canucks LW Mason Raymond scored twice Friday night and is worthy of replacing slumping Canucks RW Mikael Samuelsson on your roster.

The Canucks have won four of their last five. All five games have been in Vancouver.

The Canucks’ next three games are also at home, commencing Sunday when the Blues visit for a 10:00 pm face-off.

In fantasy terms, one of the Canucks’ early season surprises was RW Mikael Samuelsson. A shots machine in recent campaigns — Samuelsson launched more than 240 shots in both 2007-08 and 2008-09 — the 33-year-old seemed on the verge of a breakout in October and November. After his first 25 games, Samuelsson had gaudy totals of 10 goals and eight assists.

No great shakes, but a 30-goal pace from a RW on a good team was nothing to sneeze at, fantasy-wise. Owners took notice, bumping Samuelsson’s ownership rates to 67 percent in Yahoo! and 96 percent in ESPN.

Well, let the Genius be the first to tell you: It’s time to drop Samuelsson.

In his last 10 games, Samuelsson has not scored a goal and has racked up a mere four assists. Worst of all, he has not a single power-play point in his last 10 games.

Here’s the good news: There’s another Canuck you can pick up in Samuelsson’s stead. It’s LW Mason Raymond, 24, who scored twice Friday night in Vancouver’s 3-2 win vs. the Capitals. (Samuelsson was pointless, once again.)

Raymond now has five goals in his last five games. Barring an injury, he will obliterate his paltry career highs by mid-season. Better still, Raymond remains widely available in Yahoo! (29 percent owned) and ESPN formats (13.5 percent owned).

This won’t be the case for long — Raymond has already surpassed Samuelsson in season-long Yahoo! and ESPN rankings. So grab him now, before the rest of your league catches on to the forward who’s caught fire in Vancouver.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons