Time to (reluctantly) add Maxim Afinogenov

Afinogenov is no longer with the Sabres, but his crap-tastic Buffalo seasons explain his low ownership.

After his one-goal, one-assist, +2 performance in Thursday’s 4-3 shootout loss to the Bruins, Thrashers RW Maxim Afinogenov has jumped to the forefront of fantasy hockey watch lists.

Janet Eagleson sang his praises, pointing out that he is skating with Ilya Kovalchuk and that he now has 19 points in 18 games. To this we will add that the Thrashers are a scoring machine. Their 3.56 goals per game ranks second in the NHL, behind only the Capitals.

Given these circumstances, how is it that Afinogenov, 30, remains only 42.4 percent owned in ESPN formats and 43 percent owned in Yahoo! games?

While we at the Genius wholeheartedly endorse Afinogenov as a “must-add,” we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that he has frustrated us before — and that these previous frustrations are why his ownership remains so effing darn low. Let us enumerate the top two frustrations:

1. The 2007-08 season. Surely you remember: After back-to-back point-per-game seasons with the Sabres in 2005-06 and 2006-07, both of which included ample PPPs and shots on goal, Afinogenov submitted a 56-game dud: 10 goals, 18 assists, -16, six PPPs and 114 shots. His numbers in 2008-09 were not much better. Thus it was with plenty of justification that Maxim fell off the fantasy radar.

2. A +/- nightmare. While Afinogenov has scored consistently all year — as Eagleson mentions, he has a point in 15 of 19 games — he was a -6 after his first nine games. Since then, he has skated with Ilya. Lo and behold, he now stands at +3. Funny how that works.

So while we are all for adding Maxim to rosters, we must warn fantasy players that you’re adding a player who’s dependent on others. We love Thrashers C Rich Peverley as much as the next blogger, but if Thrashers coach John Anderson separates Afinogenov from Ilya, he will minimize Maxim’s value.

For now, though, Afinogenov is someone you should start with confidence.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Three to watch for Thursday (Predators vs. Devils edition: Sullivan, Legwand, Bergfors)

Predators forward Steve Sullivan -- always a threat for a 35-goal season if healthy -- is on fire.

Every Thursday, the Genius will list three players to monitor for fantasy relevance. As a rule, the players will be owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.

Player: LW/RW Steve Sullivan, Predators.

Ownership: 8 percent Yahoo!, 3.7 percent ESPN.

Tonight: The Predators host the Devils at 8:00 pm EST.

Optimism: Sullivan is a point-per-game machine when healthy, with generous doses of penalty minutes and shots on goal to boot. He has started slowly but scored twice vs. Montreal on Saturday and tallied another goal vs. San Jose on Tuesday. Now is an ideal time to add the slick veteran with a whopping eight 20-goal seasons on his resume. By the way, the Predators have won three in a row on their current home stand.

Skepticism: Sullivan, 35, has not played more than 70 games in a season since 2003-04. Also, his position eligibility changes from Yahoo! (LW) to ESPN (RW), so your ability to roster him may depend on your depth at a specific position in a specific format. Ideally, he’d be eligible at both positions in both formats, but the fantasy gods are not always kind.

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Player: C David Legwand, Predators.

Ownership: 6 percent Yahoo!, 0.9 percent ESPN.

Tonight: The Predators host the Devils at 8:00 pm EST.

Optimism: Where there is pedigree, there is fantasy potential. Yes, Legwand has underperformed (statistically speaking) for the second overall pick of the 1998 draft. But the Preds are hot and so is he: In his last five games, he has two goals and three assists. This includes a one-goal, two-assist gem vs. San Jose on Tuesday night. Though Legwand only has eight points, his career low .063 shooting percentage suggests he’s been the victim of bad luck — and that he’s been in position to post gaudier totals.

Skepticism: Legwand, 29, has not sniffed the power play, with only one PP assist in 19 games. That is not what you want from a fantasy center. And make no mistake: You should not view Legwand as a permanent addition to your roster. But if you need a one-game stopgap, now is the time for him. He’s hot, and he’s at home.

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Player: RW Niclas Bergfors, Devils.

Ownership: 18 percent Yahoo!, 5.9 percent ESPN.

Tonight: The Predators host the Devils at 8:00 pm EST.

Optimism: His last seven games: three goals, five assists, five PPPs (two goals, three assists). Call him the anti-Legwand: If you want help on the PP, grab Bergfors.

Skepticism: In fantasy terms, Bergfors, 22, is feast or famine. His saucy November numbers include two dud efforts, on Nov. 11 vs. Anaheim and Nov. 16 at Philadelphia. In each of these contests, Bergfors did not even manage one shot on goal. For that reason, Bergfors is also a viable spot starter, but still too wet behind the ears for permanent rostering.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Steve Mason is the Matt Ryan of fantasy hockey

Does this man remind you of a certain Atlanta Falcons QB?

Blue Jackets G Mathieu Garon (3-1-0, 2.60, .923) is getting the start tonight as Columbus hosts Edmonton at 7:00 pm EST.

It begs the question: What is a fantasy owner to do with supplanted starter G Steve Mason (pictured left, 7-5-2, 3.67, .879)?

The numbers tell us: Mason is getting dropped. His ownership is down to 88 percent in Yahoo! formats and 96 percent in ESPN.

Garon, by contrast, has risen to 7 percent ownership in Yahoo! and 2.9 percent in ESPN.

My verdict is simple:

1. Do not drop Mason. As a rookie last season, he was simply too awesome (33-22-0, 10 shutouts, 2.29, .916). Those numbers suggest the germ of an elite goalie, as opposed to a netminder whose rookie numbers belie his ultimate level (such as Carey Price circa 2007-08). Ten shutouts cannot be a fluke. Whether Mason’s sophomore slump is permanent, no one can determine right now. But based on last year, his fantasy owners should give him until mid-season to right the ship.

2. Garon, 31, is only worth adding if you own Mason. Yes, the history books are littered with folks like Bruins G Tim Thomas who do not peak until mid-career. But before this season, Garon had never shown any flashes of fantasy viability. His lifetime numbers tell the tale (97-84-3-10, 2.83, .905).

3. Garon does belong on all watch lists regardless of how he plays tonight. Just think back to how marvelously Avalanche G Craig Anderson performed as the backup to Panthers G Tomas Vokoun last season.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Time to drop Wideman and Lidstrom?

Bruins D Dennis Wideman is a gifted offensive player, but for fantasy purposes there's little risk in dropping him.

In his first 13 games, Red Wings D Nicklas Lidstrom scored only three points (one goal, two assists).

In his next four games, Lidstrom tallied three assists and raised his +/- by +3. His season totals after 17 games, entering tonight’s 7 pm EST tilt vs. Anaheim, are one goal, five assists, +10, two PIMs, two PPPs, and 36 shots on goal.

Here’s the question: If these numbers belonged to any other D, would you drop him?

The realistic answer is yes.

However, this is Lidstrom we’re talking about. Despite his season-long drought, he still is the No. 39-ranked blueliner in the Yahoo! game and No. 25 in ESPN formats. That makes him a No. 3 or No. 4 D, even in deep leagues.

When you throw in his recent hot streak; his superb numbers last year (16 goals, 43 assists, +31, 33 PPPs, 180 shots); and the Red Wings’ winning ways, it is easy to reach the following verdict: Don’t even think about dropping Lidstrom.

Even in this slump, he is statistically own-able. Once he gets going, you’ll regret the move. And if you think no one is dropping Lidstrom, you’re wrong: the man is down to 97 percent ownership in Yahoo! (still at 100 percent in ESPN though).

Remember: last season, there were plenty of points to go around on the Detroit blue line among Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall (six goals, 45 assists) and Brian Rafalski (10 goals, 49 assists). Lidstrom may take a step back, but the scoring and minutes of Kronwall and Rafalski do not necessarily cannibalize his value.

Bruins D Dennis Wideman is another story. His ownership is down to 71 percent in Yahoo! (though still, incredibly, at 100 percent in those loyal ESPN formats).

Why have Yahoo! owners bailed on Wideman? Largely because of his four points (one goal, three assists) in 15 games, coupled with a -1, 30 shots on goal, and only one PPP.

Based on these numbers, Wideman is nowhere near the top 50 defensemen.Yes, he netted two assists vs. Pittsburgh on Nov. 10, but that effort broke a 10-game scoreless streak. And on Nov. 12 vs. Florida, Wideman promptly returned to his scoreless ways. We’ll see what he does tonight at 7:30 pm EST in Pittsburgh.

Regardless, the question is: Can Wideman rebound and match his superb stats from last year (13 goals, 37 assists, +32, 25 PPP, 169 shots)? Also, while it’s mainstream thinking to view last season as Wideman’s breakout, it is easy to forget that he scored 13 goals and launched 171 shots in 2007-08.

The guy is a talented offensive player. But does he deserve the same fantasy leniency as Lidstrom?

Short answer? No. For two reasons:

(1) Wideman does not have the name brand Lidstrom does. If you drop Wideman, and he recovers, there is a solid chance you can snag him from the free agency pool before another owner does. It is highly unlikely another owner will use his waiver priority on Wideman. By contrast, if you drop Lidstrom, you will not get him back. Count on it. Another owner, down on his luck, will use a waiver on him or sweep him up the instant he becomes a free agent.

(2) Last year, Wideman did not have to compete with Bruins D Derek Morris for ice time — specifically PP time. Whereas the Red Wings still boast the same top three D as they did in 2008-09, the Bruins replaced D Aaron Ward with Morris. Though Wideman is still staking a solid 21:00 per game, he trails both Morris and Chara in average ice time and PP time. By contrast, in 2008-09, there were single games in which Wideman skated more minutes than Chara. At worst, he ranked second in D minutes.

Those days are over. And until further notice, so is Wideman’s run as a viable fantasy blueliner.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Three to watch for Thursday (Greene, Bertuzzi, Bergeron)

What's not to love about the statistical upside of Red Wings LW/RW Todd Bertuzzi?

Every Thursday, the Genius will list three players to monitor for fantasy relevance. As a rule, the players will be owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.

Player: D Andy Greene, Devils.

Ownership: 1 percent Yahoo!, 1.1 percent ESPN.

Tonight: The Devils visit the ice cold Penguins at 7:30 pm EST.

Optimism: With D Paul Martin (broken left arm) and D Johnny Oduya (lower-body injury) on the shelf, Greene has led the Pitchforks blueliners in minutes in the last three games — and he is skating on power plays too. He has one goal and four assists in his last four, including three PPPs (one goal, two assists).

Skepticism: A breakout year at age 27? In his three previous campaigns, Greene has never played more than 59 games or tallied more than 10 points.

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Player: LW/RW Todd Bertuzzi, Red Wings.

Ownership: 13 percent Yahoo!, 7.0 percent ESPN.

Tonight: The Wings host the Canucks at 7:30 pm EST.

Optimism: We all remember the Bertuzzi of 2002-03: 46 goals, 51 assists, 144 penalty minutes, 42 PPPs (25 goals, 17 assists) and, as if all that weren’t enough, 243 shots on goal. In last night’s 9-1 romp over the Blow Jackets, Bertuzzi tallied one goal and one assist (PP) and led the Wings with six shots on goal. It was the third straight game in which he’s taken at least five shots. With 50 shots on the season, Bertuzzi, 34, is on pace for a career high 250 shots. At bottom, he can help fantasy owners in that category. His track record suggests he can help in a few others. As a bonus, in Yahoo! formats he is eligible at RW and LW. (He’s only an LW in ESPN.)

Skepticism: Can he stay healthy? The last time he lasted more than 70 games was 2005-06, when he had 71 points (25 goals, 46 assists), 32 PPPs (12 goals, 20 assists), 200 shots and 120 PIMs.

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Player: C Patrice Bergeron, Bruins.

Ownership: 24 percent Yahoo!, 19.9 percent ESPN.

Tonight: The Bruins host the Panthers at 7:00 pm EST.

Optimism: With 12 points (six goals, six assists) and 45 shots in 17 games, Bergeron is showing shades of the breakout star he appeared to be in 2005-06, when he launched 310 shots on goal and totaled 73 points (31 goals, 42 assists) in 81 games. He is the team’s leading scorer and play-maker with C Marc Savard (foot) still mending and C David Krejci (swine flu) having just returned to action Tuesday.

Skepticism: He has only one point on the power play. If Savard and Krejci return to form, he may not get a big special-teams opportunity in the second half of the season.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

It’s Torres Time

Blue Jackets LW Raffi Torres is an ideal spot-starter for Wednesday night's games.

The Blue Jackets host the Red Wings on Wednesday night, and I’m recommending a spot-start for Jackets LW Raffi Torres.

Here’s why:

1. He’s hot. He has four goals in his last four games — specifically, he scored twice at Atlanta Nov. 5 and twice at Washington Nov. 1.

2. He’s available. He’s only 2.8 percent owned in ESPN leagues and six percent owned in Yahoo! formats.

3. Other left wings are on the shelf. No one yet knows the availability of Stars LW James Neal or Caps LW Alex Ovechkin. Never mind the injuries to Kovalchuk, Sedin, and Gagne.

4. He has a strong track record against the Red Wings. In five games against Detroit last season, Torres scored two goals and tallied one assist. He also logged eight penalty minutes.

5. Jackets G Steve Mason can handle the Wings. In the regular season, that is. Last year, in five games, Mason went 3-2 with a .930 save percentage and a 2.38 GAA.

So get Torres in your lineup. If he doesn’t score Wednesday night, you can guiltlessly drop him.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

The O’Reilly Factor

There are 13 games on the NHL platter today. Our advice is to pick up a young man who isn’t playing in one of them.

Avalanche C Ryan O’Reilly — an 18-year-old rookie — ranks second on the team with 14 points (four goals, 10 assists). He is also +13. He is tied for the lead in rookie scoring with sizzling Flyers LW James van Riemsdyk.

Of course, JVR has only played in 11 games, compared to 17 for O’Reilly.

The other silver lining to O’Reilly: He plays center, he doesn’t get a whiff on the power play, and he is 18 — so there’s no telling how long his current hot streak will last.

Here’s what we do know: The Avalanche (12-3-2, 6-0-0 at home) host the Oilers tomorrow night. Reilly (26.1 percent owned in ESPN leagues, 20 percent in Yahoo!) will be in our lineup.

He should be in yours too. After all, there are only two Sunday night games: Oilers at Avalanche and Blues at Thrashers. Reilly has scored in 10 of his last 13 games, and we are confident he will not cool off Sunday night.

Three to watch for Thursday (Hamrlik, Umberger, Stoll)

Canadiens D Roman Hamrlik should continue his hot play at Boston tonight.

Every Thursday, the Genius will list three players to monitor for fantasy relevance. As a rule, the players will be owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.

Player: D Roman Hamrlik, Canadiens.

Ownership: 24 percent Yahoo!, 22.3 percent ESPN.

Tonight: The Canadiens visit the Bruins at 7:00 pm EST.

Optimism: Currently the 18th-ranked D in the Yahoo! game, it is incomprehensible how The Hammer is owned by fewer than 1/4 Yahoo! fantasy players. He averages more than 24:00 minutes per game. He has notched at least two PIMs or two shots on goal in each of his last 11 games. In his last three games, he is +5 with six PIMs and nine shots on goal. And tonight he faces a Bruins team in an offensive slump.

Skepticism: The Hammer is 35 years old. He looks good so far this season, but can it last? And if it does last, can we be confident that he will post a viable fantasy season for the first time since 2006-07?

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Player: C R.J. Umberger, Blue Jackets

Ownership: 19 percent Yahoo!, 9.5 percent ESPN.

Tonight: Columbus visits Atlanta at 7:oo pm EST.

Optimism: The 16th overall pick in 2001, Umberger has scored in six of his last seven games, totaling two goals and five assists. Six of those seven points came on the power play. Umberger fired 234 shots last season, putting him on the radar in rotisserie-style formats.

Skepticism: Umberger is a +/- headache. He is -4 this season. Even during his current seven-game hot streak, he is -2. Of course, this is the statistical downside to scoring on the PP. The other downside to Umberger is his position; centers are easy to find in fantasy hockey, and that is why Umberger is so available.

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Player: C Jarret Stoll, Kings

Ownership: 19 percent Yahoo!, 8 percent ESPN.

Tonight: The Penguins visit the Kings at 10:30 pm EST.

Optimism: In 13 of 15 games this season, Stoll, 27, has had a fantasy impact: In all but two contests, he has either scored, taken three shots on goal, or registered two penalty minutes. His totals — 11 points (three goals, eight assists), 33 shots, eight PIMs, four PPPs, +3 — render him the No. 24 ranked center in the Yahoo! game. That means he has performed like a No. 2 center in 12-team leagues. We saw flashes of this from Stoll in 2005-06. With the Oilers back then, he scored 68 points (22 goals, 46 assists) and drilled 243 shots on goal. He also amassed 74 PIMs and 31 PPPs (11 goals, 20 assists).

Skepticism: In the three seasons since then Stoll has not surpassed 41 points. The Kings are hardly thin on front-line talent, so it is not as if Stoll will dominate the PP opportunities. Finally, as is the case with Umberger, Stoll is a center — so it’s not as if positional scarcity is on his side.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Will Kessel get lucky tonight? We say: Yes

Though Kessel will not be wearing this uniform tonight, you should still start him in all fantasy formats.

With Leafs RW Phil Kessel returning to the ice as Toronto hosts the Lightning tonight, you can make a case for inserting him immediately into your fantasy lineups.

Never mind that he hasn’t played in six months. Save the tempering of expectations for embattled Leafs coach Ron Wilson, as blogged about by Puck Daddy.

Here at Genius headquarters, we’re projecting Kessel to score at least one goal tonight, likely on the power play. We’re also expecting him to launch at least four shots.

Why are we so optimistic? Look no further than a Tweet last night from the maven, Stan Fischler: “After watching the Lightning thoroughly outplayed by the Devils and now shellacked by Philly, I have to wonder about TB’s psyche and coach.”

Tonight, this selfsame Lightning visits Toronto. And let’s not forget the truth about home ice: It means that the Leafs will have a power play opportunity or three against a team that gave up two PP goals to the Flyers yesterday.

The verdict: Start Kessel with confidence. He will light the lamp.

photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Is Steve Mason worth starting today?

Blue Jackets G Steve Mason — ordinarily a “must-start” stud despite execrable stats this season — is skating on thin fantasy ice.

Today at 5pm EST, the Jackets visit the Caps — and given Mason’s .881 save percentage and 3.48 GAA, who can trust him against Ovechkin and company?

Not me. Just as one awful start from a pitcher can cause weeks of damage in fantasy baseball, one awful start from a goalie can submarine you in the standings. Yes, Mason has the talent to pitch a shutout in every start — but to me, the downside of his getting lit up today isn’t worth the small probability of that upside.

Here’s the good news: Last season, Mason posted two 3-0 wins against the Caps. So it is possible today marks the end of his cold streak. Still, my overall view is he’s too risky to play.

PC permitting, we will check back in with an assessment of our assessment later tonight. (The Genius PC is undergoing some long overdue scheduled maintenance this afternoon; so don’t kill us if we don’t revisit the Mason at Washington subject for a day or two.)